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Trump The Economic Disruptor

• Impacts Alcobev Sector

• Economic Uncertainty Prevails

The second term of Donald J. Trump as the United States President which began early this year has disrupted the world economic order. Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports from almost all countries, including the US’s allies, has led to an international trade war, the ramifications of which are being felt in the stock markets, in trade disruption and creating economic uncertainty globally.

However, on April 9, under severe pressure from the bloodbath in the global stock markets and world leaders criticizing his move, Trump has paused for 90-days most of his exorbitant tariff hikes to 57 countries but with a baseline tariff of 10% while going aggressive on China by imposing an astounding 125% tariff.

India termed ‘Tariff-King’

As regards India, which is one of the US’s biggest trading partners in Asia, Trump has imposed a ‘discounted’ reciprocal tariff of 26%, while calling India the ‘tariff king’. Trump has claimed that the reciprocal tariff is aimed at countering unfair trade practices. The 26% tariff came into effect from April 9. Though he claimed that the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi is a great friend of his, Trump said India was charging 52%, while the US was charging almost nothing.

India subsequently slashed duty on bourbon whiskey from 150% to 100%, making the Indian liquor manufacturers take up the issue. The Director General of the Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies (CIABC), Anant S. Iyer said the Indian alcoholic beverage industry is already at a disadvantage compared to manufacturers from developed countries due to high capital and operational costs, evaporation losses, and restrictive licensing regimes. He said, “The government needs to safeguard the interests of Indian liquor manufacturers when deciding on issues related to customs duty cuts and other concessions under FTAs.”  The CIABC wanted the state governments to withdraw all excise concessions given to imported liquor, arguing that the customs duty cuts announced would harm Indian products in both the spirits and wine categories.

Bilateral Trade

The bilateral trade between India and the US was pretty balanced at 10.73% till the Trump disruption. America accounted for about 18% of India’s total goods exports, 6.22% in imports with about 30 sectors (6 in agriculture, 24 in industry) exporting to the US. As regards alcohol, wine and spirits, the tariff hike at 122.10% has come into effect. As per the data from the Export Import Data Bank (EIDB) of the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, in FY24, India imported spirits worth $23.09 million against exports of only $8.03 million with companies such as Radico Khaitan, Amrut Distilleries, Piccadilly Industries, being the prominent ones.

The concern among Indian companies is that lower import duties might push the prices of premium liquor down, thus making Indian premium liquor face stiffer competition. However, at a panel discussion organised by Ambrosia during INDSPIRIT 2025, the Secretary General of the International Spirits and Wines Association of India (ISWAI), Suresh Menon clearly stated that there was need to rationalise the tax structure, while agreeing that the Indian import duties on spirits was exceptionally high.

Scotch Whisky Association ‘disappointed’

Globally, the tariff war is impacting almost all sectors, including the alcobev sector. The Scotch Whisky Association expressed disappointment with Trump’s tariff moves. With Trump announcing import duties, including a 10% levy on all UK goods and a steeper 20% rate for imports from the European Union, taking effect on April 5, the alcobev sector was going to be adversely impacted. “The move, one of the most aggressive protectionist measures in recent years, has sparked concern across multiple sectors, including scotch whisky producers. A spokesperson for the Scotch Whisky Association said,”The industry is disappointed that Scotch Whisky could be impacted by these tariffs. We welcome the intensive efforts by the UK government to reach a deal with the US administration, and we continue to support this measured and pragmatic approach towards a mutually beneficial resolution.”

Wine sector concerned

It is not just the Scotch whisky producers who are worried, even the bourbon industry from the US is. The bourbon industry which is the backbone of Kentucky economy fears that it may get caught in the crossfire of the trade war, if other countries impose tariffs on American whiskey. There has been a lot of noise on how in the short-term Scotch whisky and European wines may become that much costlier. France’s Bourgogne Wine Board (BIVB) has said that the levies have “pushed our wines past a psychological price threshold”. French wines are subject to 20% tariffs under the new tariff rates.  

The IWSR, in its analysis, has said that the new import tariffs will have serious consequences for beverage alcohol in the US, but the exact picture is complex, nuanced and subject to a host of uncertainties.

The IWSR said that with tariffs introduced on imports from Canada and Mexico and potential EU tariffs in discussion, a number of single origin beverage alcohol categories are most at risk – products with a legally protected designation of origin, meaning that they cannot be “re-shored” and produced in the US. These include agave spirits, Canadian whisky, Irish whiskey, Cognac, Champagne and Prosecco. Mexican beer imports would also be affected. The UK is trying to negotiate a separate trade deal with the US to head off tariffs to cover categories such as Scotch whisky.

“The second Trump Administration’s policies on tariffs will almost certainly be net negative for total beverage alcohol (TBA) in the US market, with global implications likely to be more limited, but there is major uncertainty about the extent of the impact,” says Marten Lodewijks, President IWSR US.

ISWAI propagates rationalisation of duties and policies

Ms. Nita Kapoor, CEO, International Spirits and Wines Association of India ( ISWAI, gives a holistic view and shares insights on various issues the industry faces on account of high taxes, inflation, and interstate duties. The way forward is E-commerce, low duties via the FTA route, Maharashtra State duty cuts, Delhi Excise Policy model and premiumisation of liquor.

What role has ISWAI played to boost the interest of its members?

ISWAI is an apex body of the premium alcobev sector, promoted by multinational alcoholic beverage companies having investments and business operations in India. Founded in 2004, ISWAI strives to transform the Indian spirits and wines industry, upholding the highest level of quality, responsibility and ethical business practices.

ISWAI is actively engaging with state government and policymakers and committed to a supportive, predictable, harmonised, and progressive policy environment that enables member companies to thrive in India and build economic value for the States where they operate. ISWAI and its members advocate for responsible alcohol consumption by creating conversations about the negative impact of misuse, spurious and counterfeit products, illicit products, drinking and driving, and underage drinking.

Members of ISWAI include global leaders in both the spirits and wine industries, like Bacardi, Beam Suntory, Brown Forman, Campari, Diageo-United Spirits, Moet Hennessy, Pernod Ricard, and William Grant & Sons. Taken together, ISWAI’s members account for a substantial part of the revenue generated from alcoholic beverages across the country.

How have the international beverage companies coped with the Covid phenomenon?

Covid-19 has affected almost all businesses across sectors. The alcobev brands manage disruptions caused by Covid by focussing on efficient supply to ensure stock availability. The service of outlets is in line with the lockdown timings and guidelines laid down by each state. The alcobev companies also urge the state governments to consider home delivery of alcobev products as a regular service. It will minimise the disruption of retail businesses and improve job opportunities at the last mile route to consumers.

What is the strategy being adopted by the international beverage companies post-Covid?

In addition to what we mentioned above, ISWAI and its members engage with the state governments through regular consultations, which are essential to forging a predictable and progressive policy framework.

We have also seen a trend of premiumisation in the alcobev sector, which has further accelerated during the pandemic. The alcoholic beverages consumers are opting for better and premium quality brands. At-home consumption is paving the way for home delivery, social acceptance, and a rise in women consumers on account of home delivery during the pandemic.

Besides this, we are already seeing trends play out with consumers experimenting with craft gin, red wine and ready-to-drink (RTDs), which are anchored on differentiated and low alcohol content.

Do you see other states following suit by cutting duties like Maharashtra did?

West Bengal has already reduced its duties, and yes, we would expect other states to rationalise the additional duties on Bottled In Origin (BIO) products as a 150% customs duty is already levied, and any additional tax is a ‘tax on tax’ that artificially inflates the price of BIO products making it unaffordable for the consumer and thereby creating economic leverage for the counterfeit and spurious products. The reduction of duty in Maharashtra will lead to curtailment of counterfeit products, improve state revenues on account of minimal cross border inflow of spurious products.

The alcobev industry in India is witnessing significant changes influenced by a global culture leading to a trend towards premiumisation. Indian consumers are increasingly opting for ‘Bottled in Origin’ (BIO), and geographical indication (GI) tagged niche products, which carry a stamp of premium quality. The Maharashtra government has taken cognizance of the emerging growth trends of BIO in the alcobev segment and the importance of GI-tagged products, which is commendable. The decision by the Maharashtra government to halve the duty on imported alcoholic products (from 300% to 150%) will bring price rationalisation, disincentivise, if not eliminate, inter-state product smuggling, and increase volume offtake, thereby boosting the state excise revenue.

How is the Delhi government’s new policy likely to impact the international alcoholic beverage companies?

ISWAI believes that extended hours for on-premise alcobev outlets, reduction in the number of dry days, super-premium vends, an overhaul of consumer experience by privatising retail, auctioning of retail outlets, are all steps in the right direction and in keeping with Delhi’s image of a modern and bustling city that caters to a large number of young residents and tourists. It would also provide relief to the hospitality industry that has been hit hard by the pandemic.

As per the new policy, only private liquor shops will run in the city, and each municipal ward has 2-3 liquor vends. The Delhi government’s new policy is a welcome move. It is likely to curb illicit practices by equitably redistributing liquor shops, improving the consumer experience, and reducing corruption besides increasing government revenue. Every liquor outlet in the city will provide a unique walk-in experience to its customers, who will have multiple choices of brands. The entire selection and sale process will be completed within the vend premise.

Is all-around inflation likely to impact the industry?

Yes, inflation has affected the alcobev industry significantly. The triple whammy of suppressed volumes, runaway inflation, and reducing supplier share of the consumer rupee, makes it very hard for alcobev manufacturers to sustain their business operations.

The industry needs a predictable policy, a regulatory overhaul and an inflation-embedded approach to pricing. This would consider various factors such as differences in operating conditions between states, such as state levies, cost of materials, transportation, route-to-market, etc.

For example, the costs of a fast-moving brand in the value segment have increased by ₹60 per case compared to the previous year (A case is twelve bottles of 750ml each).

As per the estimates by the ISWAI, wet alcoholic ingredients, such as ENA and Scotch, are now 5% more expensive than last year, while the cost of packaging materials such as glass bottles rose by 8%, cartons by 37%, and labels and closures by 5% and 15% respectively, in just one year (FY21 and FY22 (est)). Additionally, transportation costs have shot up by 68% between FY18 and FY22.

With most states holding onto the historical lowest EDPs, no price increase leeway has been provided to the industry over the years, resulting in the Indian alcobev sector facing a sustainability crisis.

However, the need of the hour is to allow alcobev manufacturers to seek price increases recognising the supply chain and inflationary pressures. The excise policies of the states need to adjust for inflation.

Do online sales of alcobev products have a future in India?

In a pandemic-induced environment of social distancing, offering home delivery of liquor to curb counterfeit, spurious products, transparent pricing and simultaneously limiting crowding at shops is highly recommended. We believe that if the services are handled maturely by the retail trade and with all the necessary regulations in place, this could become a potential channel for the growth of revenue for states.

ISWAI urges state governments to consider ex-retail home delivery of liquor as a sustainable and long-term model. The state government can consider allowing home delivery to be included as a permanent feature of the excise policies of the states to cater to consumer demands and minimise industry disruptions during the Covid surge. It would enhance livelihood opportunities and unlock the potential of an alternative channel towards state revenues.

Has the premiumisation of liquor grown the sales of foreign liquor?

The premiumisation trend across beverage alcohol has been going on for some time. While Covid-19 has greatly impacted the alcohol industry in 2020, premiumisation appears to continue as consumers adopt new purchasing habits. Disposable income spent on going out to eat and drink before the pandemic was redirected to premium-and-above products for at-home consumption. As per IWSR Drinks Market Analysis data, total sales volume (all alcobev) declined about 29% to 474 million cases in 2020 from 668 million in 2019. Sales of spirits (which include whiskey, gin, vodka, rum and brandy) were down 20% to 277 million cases in 2020. The industry is yet to recover to pre-Covid levels and the jury is out there to confirm the growth of foreign liquor sales.

What is the possible outcome of the FTA between the UK and India?

We are encouraged by the forthcoming outlook shared by the Union Minister for Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal and the UK Secretary of State for International Trade, President of The Board of Trade, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, during the launch of the India- UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on January 13th,2022 in Delhi. The schedule to complete the early harvest agreement in the coming months is what we look forward to. Both ministers assured that the two nations would proactively and regularly engage with each other, deliberating on the trade deal’s scope and coverage.

Mr. Goyal said, “Atmanirbhar Bharat is about opening India’s doors wider so that India engages with the world from a position of strength, on equal, fair & reciprocal terms.” He calls for enhancing sectoral cooperation by addressing market access issues and removing trade restrictions.

Together with the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), ISWAI has proposed a reduction in the customs duty, for products above a price threshold, from 150% to 75% immediately, and a final resting rate of 30% at the end of 5 years. Improved market access for Scotch would enable an increasing number of Indian consumers to enjoy these premium products. A similar reduction of duties on Bulk Spirit would also be good for our industry to step up the quality of its products by blending with aged Scotch, step up exports, and increase Indian government tax revenues – a win-win for all.